| Rural Prospects and Planning Strategies on Rural Development (Year 2 of 3) | |||
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| Author | Sim, Jaehun | ||
| Views | 102724 | Publication Date | 2019.02.26 |
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Background of Research A variety of socio-economic trends influence rural areas. The low birth rate, aging society, low growth and 4th industrial revolution have made sustainability of rural areas uncertain and have significantly caused rural differentiation. Some rural areas have experienced population growth and reckless development, while others have suffered from aging, population decrease and rural marginalization. Hence, it is important to identify what factors potentially affect rural areas in the future and derive long-term strategies for sustainable rural development. However as there are limited researches that forecast and analyse rural futures, it is difficult to draw rural planning strategies with credible scientific verification. This research is designed to provide objective and concrete evidences of future changes in rural areas in terms of population, society and economy, and to propose directions of planning strategies on rural development. Method of Research The result of the second year study is obtained efficiently through literature reviews and quantitative analysis. Scenario planning is conducted to select the most significant socio-economic trends that would decisively change directions of rural futures. The essential part of the research is developing the rural future prospect model using the system dynamics method. The model consists of sub-models of population, households and housing, economy and land use and is operated by applying a business as usual scenario and additional two scenarios deducted from the scenario planning. Estimates produced by the model are analyzed to grasp changes of rural futures from the perspective that rural areas are places for life, work, rest and local community. Research Results and Implications The total rural population will slightly increase due to urban to rural migration for a short term, but then it is expected to decrease continuously. Mountainous rural areas will particularly undergo rapid population decline. However, rural areas located around the capital and metropolitan cities will mostly experience population growth. Also, it is very likely that ageing will be intensified in most rural areas and that functions of rural centers will be gradually reinforced. Therefore, it is necessary to develop effective service delivery systems that compensate for unfortunate service shortage in marginalized rural areas. Regarding the rural economy, agricultural job opportunities will gradually decrease and land use of agricultural production is expected to be shrunk. On the other hand, since the number of jobs in the manufacturing industry will increase in many rural areas, suitable planning strategies that balance conservation and development in tandem with securing optimal capacity of industrial sites need to be established. Conservation of forests and fields is another important issue to pursue rural areas as resting places. The amount of forests and fields is forecasted to decrease when economic conditions are positive. It is necessary to devise measures that prevent indiscreet development behaviors. Also if artificially developed land reverts to forests and fields due to economic depression and population decline in rural areas, it is important to identify the most sustainable way to preserve forests and fields and promote the local economy through constructing environment-friendly recreation and resting facilities that are in harmony with the preserved natural resources. As existing rural residents are aging and autonomous generation renewal within rural local community is unrealistic, the percentage of newcomers in rural areas will increase. Therefore, composition of rural local community will become dynamic in the future and it will change traditional and typical characteristics of rural local community. Hence, it is likely that the new type of local community will be formed and that policy instruments that foster healthy local community will be needed. As we discussed above, rural areas will be more differentiated by a variety of factors and they will confront unexpected and unequal opportunities and threats. However, existing government programmes and projects and development-oriented planning strategies will not be able to solve the problems and make full use of the opportunities. Therefore it is necessary to introduce a rural spatial planning scheme that includes inclusive, smart and sustainable rural development strategies and the detailed and tailored development measures that thoroughly reflect socio-economic and spatial characteristics of differentiated rural areas. The rural spatial planning scheme has to be an integrative scheme that is aggregated with policy instruments relevant to agriculture and rural areas. It means that the rural spatial planning scheme becomes a key foundation of coordinating a variety of overlapped government programmes and projects considering spatial characteristics of rural areas. Also, the rural spatial planning has to be a long-term scheme, and the central and local governments’ plans should be consistent. Researchers: Sim Jaehun, Song Miryung, Lee Junghae, Seo Hyeongjoo Research period: 2018. 1. ～ 2018. 12. E-mail address: jhsim@krei.re.kr |
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