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The purpose of this study is to calculate the appropriate market isolation amount of rice, which is a main part of government’s stabilization policy of rice prices. For this purpose, we improved the existing rice price forecasting model. The improved model corrected the possibility of systematic measurement errors in the statistical data, and explicitly considered the psychological influences of market participants and the long-term trend of rice prices. Using the improved model, this study derives forecasts of rice prices based on the scenario of isolation amount in the 2017 rice market. Finally, we derived the appropriate amount of market isolation to be used directly in government’s rice market stabilization policy. |
