Research Reports
Korean Mushroom Industry and Market Forecasting Techniques
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AuthorSin, Youngkwang
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Publication Date2010.07.01
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Original
mushrooms. Detailed research objectives were to ①examine the status of the
domestic mushroom industry, ②analyze the cultivation, consumption, and prices
of oyster and white button mushrooms, and ③suggest new market forecasting
techniques by building short and long-term forecast models.
The mushroom industry has grown by 9.31 percent on average annually
since 1991, but the growth rate has stagnated recently due to price falls that
resulted from mass production.
Big changes are underway in the domestic mushroom market due to the
development of new varieties and cultivation techniques. Mushroom prices have
continued to fall because of mass production and the development of substitute
varieties. Cultivated area and farms were also greatly reduced due to high
production cost.
Farm gate prices vary immensely and monthly prices fluctuate so much
because of mass production all year round. Prices are highly unstable due to
imbalance in supply and demand resulting from the random conversion of
cultivation items due to lack of market information.
Market forecasting techniques are essential for stable supply and demand of
mushrooms. Sample farms were carefully chosen to study variations and make
accurate predictions. In addition to farm size variation and scheduled output
and input of sample farms, data were also collected from local monitors. Such
basic data will be put into a database to provide reliable forecast information
and thereby contribute to stabilizing the forecast system for new survey items.
The foundation of a forecast system for oyster and button mushrooms is
constructed through better understanding of the mushroom industry's current status
and forecasting techniques. And it is necessary to prepare an operating mechanism
through which accurate results can be obtained by continuously assessing and
improving the system based on such groundwork.
Researchers: Shin Yong-Kwang, Han Seung-Yong, Shim Min-Hui, Ban Hyun-Jung
Research period: 2010. 4. - 2010. 7.
E-mail address: ykshin22@krei.re.kr
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