Research Reports
A Study on the Development of Agri-food Trade Model Reflecting Climate Change
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AuthorKim, Sanghyun
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Publication Date2021.02.26
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Original
Background and Purpose
Climate change has been a topic for discussion in the international community for centuries. Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable industries to negative impacts from unusual weather patterns, and such effects are more severe in developing economies than advanced nations (Tekce and Pinar, 2016). While the link between climate change and trades gains attention, the Korean government actively responds to climate change by establishing the 1st and 2nd basic plan for coping with climate change in 2016 and 2019, respectively.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has multilateral discussions on agricultural trade policies regarding climate change and agricultural sustainability. Amid the trend, it is crucial to prepare a platform to analyze climate change’s impacts on domestic farming and agro-food trade. The platform will contribute to establishing systems or policies to cope with climate change (the Korea Meteorological Administration, 2019). Accordingly, basic research on trade-climate change relations is required for the government’s response to climate change in the short term and the establishment of agro-food trade policies in the mid to long term.
Against this backdrop, this research explored climate change’s impacts on agricultural production and trade theoretically and analyzed how climate change was reflected in the existing trade models. Based on the analysis, we built a trade model reflecting climate change to apply to domesticl agricultural sector in consideration of the model’s accessibility and practicality. Using the model, we simulated impacts on domestic agriculture for various world climate scenarios. Based on the simulation results and the merits/ demerits of our model detected through the modeling process, we intend to suggest tasks required for developing a model linking climate change and trade in agriculture.
Research Methodology
We applied two approaches to analyze climate change‘s effects on agriculture and agro-food trade: a partial equilibrium model and a general equilibrium model including a gravity model.
(For more information, please refer to the report.)
Researchers: Kim Sanghyun, Kim Jongjin, Chung Daehee, Park Suyeon, Oh Saera
Research period: 2020. 1. ~ 2020. 12.
E-mail address: sanghyun@krei.re.kr
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