1. Title of Research
Current Situation and Outlook of Short-term Income Forest Products Market for Rural Community Income Increase in Korea
2. Objectives of the Study
The objectives of this study are as follows: First, to analyze the current situation of short-term income forest products market; second, to outlook the demand for and supply of short-term income forest products; third, to develop the forest products outlook and information system to report the outlook for chestnut and oak mushroom aiming at stabilizing farm household income.
3. Contents and Methodologies
Major contents of this study are divided as the survey on information system construction, the current situation of short-term income forest products market, the modeling of demand for and supply of short-term income forest products, and the outlook of demand for and supply of short-term income forest products in Korea, particularly focussing on chestnut and oak mushroom.
In order to survey information system construction, we interviewed some producers and mailed questionaire to the others. To analyze the current situation of short-term income forest products market, we reviewed the literature and statistics. And to outlook the demand for and supply of short-term income forest products, we utilized econometric method.
4. Major Findings
(1) Opinions on information system construction
The survey on information system construction showed that most of producers of short-term income forest products need information system. And most of them have intention of using the system. The most needed information was price, and the most important purpose of using the system was to determine the proper moment of sending out goods. On the other hand, the most preferred mass media was printed materials.
(2) Current situation of chestnut market
Production was 130 thousand ton in 1997, but decreased to 92 thousand ton in 2000. Consumption was 100 thousand ton in 1997, but decreased to 65 thousand ton in 2000. On the other hand, export decreased to 30 thousand ton in 2000 from 31 thousand ton in 1999, and import increased to 1.7 thousand ton in 2000 from 0.5 thousand ton in 1999 due to market opening after UR negotiation.
(3) Current situation of oak mushroom market
Oak mushroom production increased for last five years because oak mushroom has been recognized as high-income item, and was 4.7 thousand ton in 2000. Consumption also increased for last five years and was 5.5 thousand ton in 2000. Export decreased to 230 ton in 2000 from 400 ton in 1999, and import increased to 1.1 thousand ton in 2000 from 1.05 thousand ton in 1999.
(4) Outlook of demand for and supply of chestnut
Production is expected to go down to 91 thousand ton in 2002 and 87 thousand ton in 2005 because of the decrease in chestnut tree plantation area, decrease in the production per unit area and the increase in old tree percentage.
Consumption is expected to go up to 68 thousand ton in 2002 and 71 thousand ton in 2005 because of the increase in demand for chestnut as raw material for food.
Export is expected to go down to 26 thousand ton in 2002 and 24 thousand ton in 2005 because of the worsening trade condition. Import is expected to go up to 2,827 ton in 2002 and 8,010 ton in 2005 because of the decrease in domestic production and the increase in the import of inexpensive Chinese chestnut.
On the other hand, Chinese WTO entrance is expected to increase in price competitiveness and to improve the trade condition. The increase in export of labor-concentrated forest products like chestnut is expected. So in the long run the market share of Chinese chestnut is expected to increase in Japan. However, short-term effect will not be severe because of the deficiency of storage and transportation facilities that determine export volume substantially.
(5) Outlook of demand for and supply of oak mushroom
Production is expected to go up to 5,202 ton in 2002 and 5,930 ton in 2005 because of the consistent investment for cultivation facility of government. Consumption is also expected to go up to 5,980 ton in 2002 and 6,760 ton in 2005 because of the improvement of food life level. Export is expected to be 263 ton in 2002 and 340 ton in 2005 because market structure is domestic oriented. Import is expected to go up to 1,041 ton in 2002 and 1,170 thousand ton in 2005 because of the increase in domestic consumption and the increase in the import of inexpensive Chinese oakmushroom.
On the other hand, China is expected to increase the investment for production base construction and technology development and export in the east coast region of export agriculture concentrated development after WTO entrance. So the import from China is expected to increase.
(6)Suggesting the establishment of an independent Forest Products Outlook and Information System
We suggest the establishment of an independent Forest Products Outlook and Information System that provides timely and up-dated production and market information on chestnut and oak mushroom by which farmers are able to improve their farm planning and marketing strategies. Outlook and Information reports of major forest products such as chestnut and oak mushroom play a valuable role for central and local governments to stabilize forest products markets and farm household incomes.