The purpose of this research was to develop a market forecast model for the duck industry based on basic statistics. During the last decades, duck meat consumption has increased considerably along with the increased concern for the consumer's well-being that has contributed much to the continued growth of the duck industry. Amid such a trend, the demand by duck producers and policy makers for sound market forecast is high.
With such a background, we first examined the production and consumption of duck meat, marketing system and integration of the duck industry, which is concentrated in Jeonnam, Chungbuk and Jeonbuk provinces. Based on 2005 agricultural census, we sampled 228 duck farms and made a questionnaire about breed, disease, and the productivity of individual duck farms.
Secondly, we set up a supply-demand model. The purpose of developing the model was to demonstrate its goodness of fit by using production cycle, statistical data and farm surveys. But there were many uncertain factors, such as price fluctuation, disease and seasonal variation in duck breeding. Because of the uncertain market situation, there were several market problems, such as unstable income of duck producers and imbalance of supply and demand. In developing the supply-demand model, there are many limits: inconsistency of major data, time lag of statistics gathering, and lack of demand-side analysis. Nevertheless, the simulation results of this model showed that it can finally be used for forecasting the outlook of the duck market.

Researchers: Huh Duk, Hyungwoo Lee, Jeongmin Lee and Junhyung Kyung
Research period: 2010. 4.~2010. 7.
E-mail address: huhduk@krei.re.kr