농업·농촌 2030/2050 비전과 과제 } : 한국농촌경제연구원

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연구보고서

농업·농촌 2030/2050 비전과 과제

2010.08.01 76391

과제성격

정책연구(P133)
저자

김정호, 김창길; 송미령; 한석호; 장도환
등록일

2010.08.01
연구주제

농업정책일반.

원문보기 좋아요

요약문

이 연구는 2050년까지의 농업·농촌의 모습을 전망하면서 미래에 대비하기 위한 정책 과제를 미리 검토하려는 것이다. 다만, 향후 40년은 상당히 긴 기간이기 때문에 중간 연도에 해당하는 2030년은 수치를 이용하여 전망하고 2050년에 대해서는 대략적인 미래상을 제시하고자 한다.

The purpose of this study is prediction on appearance of the agriculture and farming area in 2030/2050 and plans for vision and is to review ahead the policy direction and challenges to prepare for the structural change in the future. In 2000, national and international organizations promoted strategic forward-looking research and the Presidential Commission on the Future Planning Committee was established and a national vision and strategy is working on May 2008, in Korea as well. In addition, the Government is also promoting a plan of vision, the study of the agricultural sector could be used to establish long-term vision.
The vision 2030/2050 of Agriculture and farming area on Character and Significance can be summarized by two points. The first thing is the suitability of long-term vision for the agricultural sector to be established. The agricultural sector takes a considerable period for research and development (R&D) and output of agricultural policies, as well as it will take a considerable period, particularly agricultural restructuring that is accompanied by a generational shift. The second, the focus of the current generation of 2050 is being replaced. The human life cycle is about 40 years, one generation is replaced with the next one.
The 'transpiration agricultural policy' leading roles were experienced a land reform are retired, the next generation is a major player of agriculture. The next generation grew up in the IT age, the digital civilization will be the main axis.
Above all, the mega-trends that the future of agriculture and rural change will be driven were summarized with reference to previous studies and expert opinions. The future flows of great change in Korea Agriculture and Farming area in 2050 are divided with four areas. The first thing is a global environmental change that is the spread of global competition, food and resource security, climate change and environmental issues . The second is a changes in the domestic environmental that is the slow growth period, the spread of knowledge industries, an aging era of longevity . The third is a technology changes that is the IT·BT·ET·NT·CT and technological development and the evolution of knowledge and information. The fourth is a social and cultural change that includes multicultural society, and women age, the quality and worth of life, changes in lifestyle.
The Vision means 'the desirable figure' we want to achieve. The vision of agriculture and farming area is the role of the people expected to see faithfully performed in a broad sense. In a narrow point, the agriculture has to be developed as a sustainable industry and promising business and farming area has to be developed as people's work place, living plot, shelter, the rural people as well. In particular note that by 2050 the national income of $ 80,000 a unified Korea. The agriculture will be more efficient professional management system to settle, and a variety of rural industries and people who will serve as a co-existing space.
In this study is to review the future of agriculture and rural appearance and vision in 2030/2050. The first is the agriculture vision of the climate change and environment ages will be the next important topic. The second is the growth power and new way out to develop agriculture in the industry . The third is the image and vision of the future's the rural space and the community will be changed . And this study is divided into three areas, each of 10 issues presented in each field.
First, there are proposed in regard to the cimate change and environment ages agriculture vision. (1) the chief producing place movement by global warming, (2) the smart agricultural generalization using high-tech, (3) the establishment of low carbon, green technology, (4) the eco-friendly organic universalization of agriculture, (5) factory farming operations of all-weather plant, (6) the climate change GM agricultural products, (7) the settlement of biorefinery technology, (8) Algae practical use of molecular techniques, (9) the manufacturing of meat products industry development, (10) the days of water shortages and agricultural water.
Second, there are proposed in regard to agricultural growth power and new way out. (1) the professional management of the agricultural structure, (2) the itemized systematization and establishment of a global agribusiness company, (3) the production systems of rice-based and horticultural crops-based, (4) an aging agricultural growth and the silver industry (5) the e-commerce and RFID-based food distribution, (6) the relation to agricultural and food industry development, (7) the bio-industry development, (8) the international agricultural base operations, (9) the unified agricultural age, (10) and development to space agriculture.
Third, there are proposed in regard to the rural area and the community's vision. (1) the generalization of Rurbanization phenomenon, (2) the settlement systems change from hierarchical type to direct type, (3) the formation of various types of villages, (4) the rural communities multiple service capabilities of the facility, (5) the traffic development and changes in transfer patterns, (6) the rural landscape spread down, (7) the regional industrial diversification and 6th industrialization of agriculture, (8) the rural type jobs and new jobs creation, (9) the multicultural arrival, (10) the expansion of return to farming, rural.
Finally, there are proposed in regard to policy challenges for the future vision of agriculture for the next five challenges. First, the slow growth period to prepare for the challenges, the new-growth engine development, human resources, agricultural export, and agricultural development should be promoted. Second, the environment ages for days to prepare for the challenges, the settlement of regional cycle agriculture, and promoting environment-friendly agricultural industrialization in the Korean peninsula is necessary. Third, the aging, longevity, time to prepare for the challenge, the flexible retirement support and development and agriculture programs for the elderly are needed. Fourth, to prepare for the challenges to multicultural society, the cultural adjustment assistance, international exchanges in rural culture and the development of cultural diversity should be promoted. Fifth, to prepare for the challenges to unification, 'hybrid agricultural development plan is need to establish to easy to change with respect to any sudden changes.
Researchers: Jeong-Ho Kim, Chang-Gil Kim, Mi-Ryung Song, Suk-Ho Han and Do-Hwan Jang
E-mail address: jhkim@krei.re.kr