This study develops a mid-term preceding observation model of agro and livestock products to complement an existing short-term agricultural observation model.
The first purpose of the study is to extend a three seasonal classification(spring, summer, fall) of large green onion and radish to a four seasonal classification that involves the winter additionally. This allows us to verify the reason for demand and supply unbalance and price volatilities of fresh vegetables. The second purpose is to construct a mid-term preceding observation model that would be used to forecast planted areas, output, monthly shipment and price.
To attain these purposes several multiple regression models are estimated in chapter 3. A system is consisted of a planted areas equation, a yield equation, monthly shipment distribution model, and monthly pricing model. To calculate endogeneous variables such as seasonal planted areas, production, and monthly price of the large green onion and radish, supporting equations are involved in the system and the consumer price index etc are considered as exogenous variables.
In chapter 4 and appendix, the accuracy of the estimated model is evaluated by performing an historical simulation and examining how closely our estimate of monthly price of agro and livestock products track the historical data. The results of Root Mean Square Simulation Error(RMSE) and Theil's inequality coefficient show that the estimates track real values well.

Researchers: Baesung Kim, Misung Park, Jaehwan Cho, Taekyun Kim
Research period: 2010. 2. - 2010. 4.
E-mail address: bbskim@krei.re.kr, mspark@krei.re.kr, jhcholee@pusan.ac.kr