Background of Research
Since the Paris climate change agreement officially took effect in November 2016, humanity has started a new climate regime beyond the Kyoto regime. This study aimed to measure the impact of Korea's participation in the new climate regime and implementation of voluntary goals on the socio-economic sectors including the agriculture, forestry, livestock and food sectors, and prepare countermeasures. To achieve the final objective of presenting the agriculture, livestock and food sectors' systematic and viable strategies for effective greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and climate change adaptation in the new climate regime, this first-year study analyzed economic ripple effects of mitigation and adaptation methods to be applied due to the acceptance of the new regime.

Methods of Research
To analyze the impact of the process of accomplishing national goals of mitigation, marginal abatement cost analysis was applied. Concerning adaptation, because concrete national goals were not presented, scenarios linked with farm-level profit maximization were set up, and the impacts by each scenario were measured.

Research Results and Implications
To achieve the goal of cutting Korea's GHG emissions and additional reduction for raising the goal in the new climate regime, much effort is needed to lower GHG emissions in non-energy sectors. For this, it is urgent to develop a method for GHG reduction in non-energy sectors that can prove the reduction result transparently and scientifically. Also, it is necessary to first reduce GHG emissions due to livestock excretions, because the proportion of the emissions is the highest in the agriculture, livestock and food sectors. The development of bioenergy, a way to use emission sources in non-energy sectors as energy, can cut GHG emissions in both sectors. A representative method is to utilize livestock excretions as energy sources. Promoting the local food movement can reduce GHG emissions owing to the transport of agricultural products. Although this may not be included in the direct emissions reduction performance of the agricultural and livestock sector, it can contribute to environmental policy in accordance with the government's consumption policy. Last, it is required to seek a way to promote a certification system of low-carbon agricultural products. If farmers take part in the system actively, it will not be difficult to accomplish the reduction goal, and there will not be a problem in raising the goal for a while. However, because motivation for participating in the system is very weak, solutions to it are urgent.
The research result shows that the temperature rise and changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change have various effects on potential yields of crops, tolerance of production functions, the optimum amount of inputs, production management costs and so on. Therefore, characteristics of each crop should be considered in adaptation policies. As for vegetables, the optimum input of intermediary goods and farm operating costs were vulnerable to climate change. R&D or support related to cutting farm households' production costs is judged to be more effective than R&D such as the development of varieties. Nevertheless, because leaf and root vegetables are mostly grown outdoors, reducing their production costs by applying ICT etc. will be limited. Thus, more effective policy directions may be developing appropriate technologies through which farmers can utilize intermediary goods efficiently, and providing services that can decrease farm households' information costs. As for grains with miscellaneous grain crops excluded, R&D is necessary to increase potential production and tolerance of production functions. According to the analysis result for the livestock sector, climate change was forecasted to decrease the average number of livestock in Korean and beef cattle farms and dairy farms, but increase the average number of livestock in layer chicken, broiler and pig farms. Nevertheless, the modification of livestock farms' production structure, including switching livestock species, requires crop farms' considerable fixed costs and time. Therefore, a policy will be needed to lessen the burden due to farm restructuring.
Last, the reduction inventory, especially the inventory related to the use of intermediary goods can conflict with incentives for farmers' climate change adaptation. Therefore, to establish effective reduction and adaptation policies, an integrated point of view is necessary in consideration of synergy between reduction and adaptation and trade-off effects.


Researchers: Lee Sangmin, Lim Youngah, Sung Jaehoon, An Hyeonjin, Lee Hyeonjeong, Lee Hyejin
Research period: 2017. 1. ~ 2017. 12.
E-mail address: smlee@krei.re.kr