| The Effects of Extreme Events on Korean Agricultural Sector | |||
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| Author | Sung, Jaehoon | ||
| Views | 96207 | Publication Date | 2020.03.04 |
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Research Background The 2018 Extreme Weather Report (published by involved ministries in 2019) describes that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events continued to increase for the last 100 years, and it is likely that climate change will further exacerbate the tendency. Agriculture is an industry susceptible to weather conditions. Therefore, it is inevitable that extreme weather events can have a direct or indirect impact on agriculture, requiring political response to it. Moreover, active efforts have been made recently to reduce the negative impact of extreme weather events resulting from climate change and seek sustainable growth by integrating disaster risk management with adaptation to climate change. However, Korean governmental policies for risk management related to extreme weather events only focus on disaster management and risk transfer rather than the climatic disaster risk identification. Previous literature in Korea also mainly focuses on the causal relationship between extreme weather events and agricultural productivity. Also, studies regarding changes in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events for establishing policies, its direct and indirect impact on the economy, and measurement of vulnerability are lacking. This study focuses mainly on the disaster risk identification which is essential for improving the synergistic relationship between disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. Specifically, the purpose of this study is as follows: 1) to create primary data about extreme weather events required to identify disaster risks, 2) to analyze the economic impact of major extreme weather events based on the ideal analytical method therefor, 3) to establish implications for effective risk management of weather disasters. Research Methodology The process used for this study is described below: First, based on previous literature and expert advices, we select estimation methods for measuring the economic impact of extreme weather events, and construct an analytical framework and indexes for assessing vulnerability to extreme weather events. Furthermore, we study the methodology for disaster risk assessment and disaster risk management of international organizations (IPCC, UNISDR), foreign countries (Australia, the US), and Korea. We analyze spatial distribution of extreme weather events and its changes based on the past weather data and climate change scenario data. The information from the ASOS (Automated Surface Observing System) of the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and the Thiessen network analysis are incorporated to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of hourly temperatures and precipitation in the past. Lastly, the climate change scenarios provided by the KMA are applied to forecast future changes of the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme weather events resulting from climate change. How to measure direct economic costs of disasters and disaster risk depend on the availability of empirical data. First, for rice of which the productivity data for each region are available, we estimate causal effects of extreme weather events on rice yield and its distribution by applying a regression analysis. For apples and pears of which the data about agricultural insurance for each region and crop are available, a regression analysis is also incorporated to identify the causal relationship between the loss cost ratio and extreme weather events for each region and crop. For pigs and chickens of which the damage data for each region and livestock due to heatwaves are available, we measure changes of disaster risks before and after climate change. Moreover, EDM (Equilibrium Displacement Model) is used to analyze indirect disaster costs of extreme weather events due to heatwaves. The hazards-of-place model (Cutter et al. 1996) is adopted to build a framework for analyzing vulnerability to extreme weather events, and apply the nonparametric frontier approach to normalize and integrate indexes related to vulnerability (Zhou et al. 2017). Lastly, we survey with questionnaires to analyze producer and consumer response to extreme weather events in this study. Findings Chapter 2 analyzes spatial distribution and changes in its extreme weather events related to precipitation or temperatures. The analysis forecasts a severe water scarcity between 2021 and 2040 and between 2071 and 2100, showing more water scarcity in the central region, including Gyeonggi-do than in the southern region of Korea. A continued increase in extreme weather events (average +2σ) related to high temperature is also forecasted because of climate change, mainly in the central region and the coastal areas. It is also shown that extreme weather events (average-2σ) related to low temperature continue to decrease after a sharp increase mainly in the inland areas between 2021 and 2040. The analysis shows that heatwaves (the highest temperature above 35℃) continue to increase, mainly in the central region, coastal and inland areas of Gyeongsang-do. This result implies that the occurrence of extreme weather events and changes in frequency and intensity of them due to climate change varies with regions and periods. Moreover, it is necessary to pay attention to geographical features for the effective climatic disaster risk management. (The rest is omitted. See the attached file for details.) Researchers: Sung Jaehoon, Jeong Hakkyun, Lee Hyunjung Research period: 2019. 1. ~ 2019. 10. E-mail address: jsung@krei.re.kr |
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