Agricultural Outlook Forum 2007 Held in Seoul

-Over 1,600 Participants Gathered to Find Hope and Open Bright Future for Rural Korea-

The Agricultural Outlook and Information Center of the Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI) held “Agricultural Outlook Forum 2007” on January 24 at Hotel Lotte World in Seoul with the participation of over 1,600 guests, dignitaries, and industry people in agriculture.

At the annual forum, the tenth of its kind held under the theme of “Opening the Bright Future for Korean Agriculture and Rural Villages,” presentations were made and discussions ensued on major issues of current concern: agricultural negotiations, farm economy, development of new technologies and markets, development and welfare of farm villages, farm industries and policies of foreign countries, and the supply and demand of farm produce.  

Especially, projections on the economy and the world agriculture in general were made by leading scholars home and abroad. Among them were Hyun Jung-Taik, president of the Korea Development Institute, and Richard Barichello, professor of agricultural economics at the University of British Columbia, Canada.

At the forum, a presentation was also made by Prof. Kim Han-Ho of Seoul National University on the agricultural industries and trends of the U.S., Japan, China, and Europe. Meanwhile, Chung Chung-Gil, researcher at KREI, called the forum’s attention to China and said the country has set up an export strategy by selecting eleven key produce items for export and thirty five specialized cultivation regions.       

             During the opening ceremony, Choi Jung-Sup, president of KREI, delivered opening remarks, expressing his sincere hope that the forum will provide an invaluable opportunity to find hope and discuss vision for Korean agriculture and rural villages.

Stressing that progressive farmers as well as consumers dedicated to Korean agriculture and rural life are the very source of the nation’s hope, President Choi pointed out that there are not so few elements of hope for Korean agriculture despite today’s harsh reality home and abroad.

Park Hong-Soo, minister of agriculture and forestry, also delivered words of encouragement, conveying gratitude that the research institute has greatly contributed to the decision making of farmers and the setting up of farm policies by the government for the past ten years. Saying that the question as to how the nation may overcome challenges faced by Korean agriculture depends on choices the Korean farm industry makes, Minister Park wished that the participants of the forum thoroughly contemplate current issues of Korean agriculture and its future with all seriousness.

Farm Income Projected to Rise by 1.3% to 29.9 Mil. Won Per Household

Oh Se-Ik, vice president of KREI, made a forecast that farm income on average for this year is expected to increase to 29.9 million won, a gain of 1.3% as it is expected that the number of farm households will drop while transfer profits such as direct payments will increase. As for the total amount of value added in the agricultural sector, Oh said that the figure is expected to drop to 20.78 trillion won, a 2.7% fall from that of last year, because a 2.1% gain expected from raising livestock will be offset by the cultivation sector’s 3.6% decline.

Oh said that a projection on the total value added on a yearly basis showed that annual value added will gradually fall to 19.4 trillion won in 2012 and to 18 trillion won in 2017. In spite of this trend, however, the projection foresaw increases in average farm income to 37 million won in 2012 and to 45 million won in 2017.

FTAs Likely to be Signed with ASEAN, Canada, and India in 2007

             Kwon Oh-Bok, researcher at KREI, made a projection that free trade agreements (FTAs) with ASEAN, Canada, and India will be signed this year while negotiations for an FTA with the European Union will begin in the first half of this year.

Conclusion of DDA Agricultural Talks This Year Unlikely

             According to a projection made by KREI Researcher Lim Song-Soo, the possibility of DDA agricultural talks concluding this year is low due to various reasons such as the presidential campaign in the U.S. Nevertheless, Lim said that there is also a chance of the talks’ making some progress if the U.S. shows some flexibility on subsidy reductions.

Next Ten Years Is A Watershed Period for Traditional Korean Foods

KREI Researcher Lee Kye-Im forecasted that the market success of traditional Korean foods will depend on the next ten years. She said that the next ten years will be a watershed period when traditional foods as home business will be replaced with mass-produced ones.

The Rural Population Rising in the Municipalities of “Eup”

             Researcher Song Mi-Ryung attracted much interest at the forum as she said that the rural population in the municipalities of “Eup” has been on the rise. She also said that the annual job growth rate in the so-called “new vitality regions” is found to be higher at 4.2% than the national average of 2.7%.  

Rice Price to Rise by 2~5% During the Crunch Period  

Kim Tae-Hun, associate researcher at KREI, made a forecast that rice price will be 2~5% higher during this year’s crunch period than that of harvest season. As for the total size of rice fields farmers intend to cultivate, Kim projected that the size will fall by 1% to 945,000 hectares. In the case of glutinous rice, he said that the cultivation field is expected to decrease by 18% from that of last year.

             As of the end of December, 2006, the amount of rice reserved by local distributors at farm sites is estimated to be 2.6% more than that of a year earlier, while the amount of rice reserved by farms has increased by 13.6% during the same period. Even so, it is estimated that the amount of overall market supply will be slightly less than the market demand.

Meat Prices of Beef and Pork Likely to Fall Due to Supply Increases of Korean Cattle and Beef Import

The price of Korean bulls is expected to drop slightly to 4.2 million won per head due to a projected increase in the number of domestically reared cattle and an import resumption of U.S. beef, said Jeong Min-Kook, researcher at KREI. In the case of pigs, he said that the market price is forecast to drop due to a rise in the total number of reared pigs.

Cultivation Areas for Vegetables Likely to Fall

             According to a forecast made by KREI Researcher Park Ki-Hwan, the cultivation areas for red pepper, garlic, and green onions will drop by 5~6%,  whereas those of bunching onions and onions will rise slightly. The cultivation area for greenhouse vegetables is seen to rise by 3%.

Fruit Production Likely to See No Change Despite a Slight Decline in Cultivation Area

             Kim Kyung-Phil, associate researcher at KREI, forecasted that the cultivation area for fruits this year will drop by 1~2% from that of last year. However, he said that the production amount is forecast to stay about the same as last year’s 2.2 million tons.