| Changes in the Supply and Demand Environment of Major Vegetables and Countermeasures | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Author | Choi, Byungok | ||
| Views | 111983 | Publication Date | 2019.02.14 |
| Original | |||
|
Background of Research Recently the supply and demand of vegetables have been affected by more various changes in production, distribution, consumption, import and export, the meteorological environment, etc. than in the past. Therefore, it is needed to closely analyze how each factor influences the supply, demand, and prices of vegetables, and to set up policies for responding to changes in the supply and demand environment of vegetables. In Korea, the conclusion of FTAs has expanded the import of vegetables including kimchi made in China, and frequent abnormal climate phenomena due to global warming have increased the instability of the supply and demand of vegetables. For these reasons, it has become difficult to maintain stable production of vegetables. Thus, it is necessary to examine the current changes in the meteorological environment, production, import, consumption patterns, distribution, the processing environment, etc. which affect the supply and demand of major vegetables, and to present policies that can respond to these changes. Method of Research This study examined the current policy of the Supply and Demand Stabilization Project by utilizing previous studies and policy materials on the supply and demand of vegetables, and conducted a survey for experts and policymakers (the central and local governments, agricultural cooperatives, local traders, etc.) related to the Project. Regression analysis and time series analysis were also used. First, the survey on the Vegetable Supply and Demand Stabilization Project for people related to the Project was utilized to identify the current status and problems of the Project, analyze the importance and satisfaction levels by using the IPA technique, and draw development plans. Second, for statistical and econometric analysis, this study analyzed the effect of the characteristics of price fluctuations of major vegetables and kimchi imports from China on major domestic vegetables by utilizing a time series model. Concretely, this study analyzed whether a particular shock on time series data increases volatility in a certain period through ARCH effects designed by Engle(1982), and analyzed the relation among vegetable prices, domestic production, and kimchi and vegetable imports from China by using the VAR model and the SVAR model. Effect of Changes in the Meteorological Environment on the Production and Import of Vegetables From the result of analysis of the impact of meteorological and import changes on vegetable production and price fluctuations, the following implications were drawn. The meteorological environment decreased yields at a statistically significant level. Recently, a period with the highest price volatility has been concentrated in spring (drought, high temperature), summer, and fall (localized heavy rain, typhoons). Therefore, it is required to establish the foundation of vegetable production that can respond to changes in the meteorological environment in these periods. According to the result of analysis of changes in domestic vegetable acreage and prices due to a rise in kimchi imports, the increased import of kimchi reduced the production base of domestic vegetables. Changes in the Environment of Vegetable Consumption The environment of vegetable consumption is changing continually. Consumers who mainly purchased raw food products in the past have come to prefer semi-processed products including salted cabbage, washed radishes and carrots, and chili powder. Restaurants and large users have increased the proportion of their use of imported vegetables. Evaluation of and Future Tasks for the Supply and Demand Stabilization Project From the evaluation of the major means of the government's Supply and Demand Stabilization Project (contract cultivation, government procurement and stockpiling, and market isolation projects) and an analysis of the survey result of the importance of and satisfaction with the Project, the following implications can be derived. First, as the government's means of market intervention, government procurement and stockpiling and market isolation projects, are continuing, it is urgent to establish plans to enhance the percentage of contract cultivation by agricultural cooperatives. Second, the government procurement and stockpiling and market isolation projects should target producers participating in contract cultivation only, because the projects are not very effective in increasing farm household income and especially the market isolation project can cause social controversy. Third, the evaluation of the importance of and satisfaction with the supply and demand policy using the IPA technique shows that prior control of cultivation area, the agricultural outlook, and the contract cultivation project are important. Short-Term and Medium- and Long-Term Policy Tasks for Responding to Changes in the Supply and Demand Environment of Major Vegetables Through the above research results, short-term and medium- and long-term policy tasks due to the changes in the supply and demand environment of major vegetables can be summarized as follows. In the production sector, it is necessary to respond to changes in the meteorological environment by preparing measures to improve the production base and increase the percentage of contract cultivation of producer groups such as agricultural cooperatives in the short term. In the medium and long term, it is required to stably conduct contract cultivation and produce the optimal volume with vegetable production complexes that have the production base as the center. In the processing and distribution sectors, it is needed to respond to the expansion of semi-processed vegetables including salted cabbage and washed radishes and carrots by establishing plans to build a safety and quality standardization system. Also, it is necessary to minimize vegetable price fluctuations by linking the volume of contract cultivation and fixed and negotiated price sale. In the consumption and import sectors, it is required to lay the foundation for direct transactions based on contract cultivation between producer groups and end users, and to apply the positive list system (PLS) to imported vegetables and kimchi, monitoring the establishment of the PLS for domestic vegetables. In the policy sector, it is needed to lay the foundation for enabling producer groups such as agricultural cooperatives to convert the government's Supply and Demand Stabilization Project into the method of contract cultivation of vegetables. At the same time, it is necessary to connect vegetable outlook information with the Project through accurate forecasting combined with scientific technique. Researchers: Choi Byungok, Kim Wontae, Lym Hyobin Research period: 2018. 1. ~ 2018. 10. E-mail address: bochoi@krei.re.kr |
|||