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KREI, Summary of『Agricultural Outlook 2006』
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| Writer | Admin |
| Date | 2006.01.24 |
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□ The KREI (President Choi Jung-sup) held an event called “Agricultural Outlook 2006“ on January 25, 2006 (Wednesday) at Lotte Hotel Jamsil with 1,500 figures in agricultural circles including Agricultural and Forestry Minister Park Heung-soo attending. ○ This conference held in the subject of “Korean Rural Area in the World“ was the venue where researchers from various research institutes including the KREI touched upon major issues including agricultural negotiations, farm household economy, rural welfare, food safety, and environment-friendly agriculture, and presented their forecast for supply and demand by commodity. After presentations, the speakers discussed with participants in the Q&A session. □ DDA's settlement within this week and the progress in FTA negotiations will affect the internal and external agricultural environments. ○ During the DDA negotiations, it is highly likely that duty reduction will be determined in the way that is closer to the EU position, and the domestic subsidy will be adjusted in the way that is closer to the US position. ○ The FTA negotiations are underway with ASEAN, Canada, and Japan respectively. The FTA negotiations will be launched soon with the US as well. In the context, it is needed to pursue FTA and DDA negotiations in the way that their effect on the domestic agriculture is minimum. In the meantime, the differentiated export strategy for niche market shall be pursued in order for the Korean agriculture to use these as an opportunity. □ The added value of agricultural sector in 2006 will be reduced 0.9 percent year-on-year. However, in relation to the reduction in the number of farm households and the increase in transfer income such as direct payment, the income per farm household will increase 3 percent year-on-year ○ In 2006, the added value in the cultivation sector is expected to be reduced 0.8 percent year-on-year. The added value in the livestock sector is projected to be reduced 1.4 percent in relation to the resumed US beef import. Therefore, the added value in the agricultural sector is expected to amount to 20,670 billion won, down 0.9 percent year-on-year. ○ In 2006, the farm household income (nominal) per household is projected to be 29.8 million won, up 3.0 percent year-on-year. After 2006, the number of farm households will decrease, but the direct payment amount will rise. As such, the farm income per farm household is expected to rise 3.7 percent on average per year, amounting to 41.2 million won by 2015. ○ Recently, the farm economy has been somewhat improved thanks to the rising trend of farm income, the stagnant debt growth of farm, and the reduction in household spending. □ In 2006, the rice price before the pre-harvest season is projected to rise 5 percent. The acreage intended to cultivate rice in 2006 is projected to be 975,000ha, down 0.5 percent year-on-year. ○ In 2006, if 100,000 tonnes of government-stored rice and imported rice volume are released, the rice price during the pre-harvest season is expected to be 145,000 won per 80kg. □ Native Korean cattle price to be 3.3 million won, down 14 percent from the last year level ○ In 2006 where the native Korean beef production is projected to increase, and the US beef importation will be resumed, the price of a bull is expected to drop to the 3.3 million won level. In 2006, some 200,000 tonnes of beef will be imported. It is recommended to restrain from supplying native Korean beef in large volume in the early stage. ○ The inventory of powered milk in 2006 is projected to mark 76 percent of the monthly production. Effective inventory management is requested. □ Vegetable acreage to be three to four percent smaller year-on-year, major vegetable import volume to rise 10~14 percent □ Fruit acreage will be one percent smaller year-on-year, but the yield of this year is projected to be 2.1 million tonnes, similar to that of last year. ○ In 2006, apple production will increase four percent, while grape and persimmon production is projected to drop six percent and three percent respectively. The overall fruit price in 2006 is expected to be similar to that of last year. ○ The lifting of the import ban under the plant quarantine law, not the reduction of duty, will have a bigger impact on the local fruit cultivation industry. □ In 2006, the market size of the environment-friendly agricultural products will amount to 910 billion won, up 20 percent year-on-year. The figure will grow to 1,980 billion won in 2010, and 4,320 billion won in 2015. □ It was found that one in two urban citizens wish to move to rural areas. Therefore, it is possible to diversify the rural areas into large-scale farming villages, retiree villages, green tourism villages, and cultural artist villages. If the demand for rural areas as residential place is properly met, the reduction of rural population could be eased. □ The production of energy crops and the trade of carbon emission right could be used as an opportunity by the farming and forestry industry. The supply of bio fuel via the production of energy crop is an alternative to secure energy security, reduce carbon dioxide emission, and enhance farm income. The trade of carbon emission right could enable the forestry to sell carbon dioxide absorbed by forests. |
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