The Korea Rural Economic Institute hosted the 2017 Agricultural Outlook Conference on "Agriculture and Rural Areas Toward the Future: Changes and Challenges" at the Lotte Hotel, Songpa-gu, Seoul on Jan. 18. The event was attended by about 1,500 people including the agriculture minister, farmers, and public officials. In the conference, marking its 20th anniversary this year, participants examined environmental changes at home and abroad, including changes in the agri-food market and international order, reviewed response measures, and sought the direction of Korean agriculture and rural communities. The following are the main contents of the presentations in the event.
 

The agricultural production value will increase by 0.8% from the previous year due to the growth of rice and livestock production values.

 - The agricultural production value of 2017 is estimated to be 43 trillion 277 billion won, up 0.8% from last year.

 - The production value of the cultivation industry is expected to decrease by 1.3% from the previous year to 24 trillion 342 billion won. The grain production value will grow 1.4% (rice 1.2%) compared to last year, and fruit 2.2%. The production value of vegetables, whose prices soared because of the poor crop situation, will decline by 5.2% as the recovery of production will lead to price decreases from 2016.

 - The production value of the livestock sector is projected to grow by 3.7% from last year to 18 trillion 935 billion won, with an increase in layer chicken and duck prices due to the outbreaks of AI.
 ※The production value of Korean beef cattle and pigs will decrease by 1.7% and 1.6% respectively compared to the previous year.
 

Despite a fall in assorted feed prices, farm operating costs are estimated to rise by 0.3% for an increase in international oil prices.

 - Thanks to low and stable world grain prices, assorted feed prices will be 0.5% lower than last year. Due to a rise in international oil prices, however, input prices, including light and heat expenses in farming, and farm material costs, will grow by 1.6% from 2016. Therefore, farm operating costs are forecast to be 0.3% higher than the previous year.
 

With the growth of agricultural income and non-farm income, farm household income per household will rise by 0.5% from last year.

 - Because of the growth rate of the agricultural production value (0.8%) higher than that of farm operating costs (0.3%), the agricultural income of 2017 is projected to increase by 1.8% from 2016. 
※The agricultural income of 2016 is estimated to have decreased by 2.6% compared to the previous year.
 - With agricultural income and non-farm income per household growing by 1.8% and 2.4% respectively from last year, the 2017 farm household income per household is forecast to reach 38.31 million won, up 0.5% from 2016. 
※Agricultural Income per Household = Gross Agricultural Income–Farm Operating Costs
 

The farm household population and the number of farm households are projected to decline by 2.1% and 1.4% respectively compared to last year.

 - Compared with 2016, the 2017 farm household population is estimated to decrease by 2.1% to 2.47 million people, and the number of farm households by 1.4% to 1.06 million households. On the other hand, the proportion of farmers aged 65 or older is forecast to increase by 0.9%p from the previous year to 40.2%, implying that the decrease and aging of the farm household population will continue. However, the rural population is expected to grow due to people returning to farming and rural areas. 
 

The rice price in producing areas during a preharvest season (July―September) in the 2017 crop year is forecast to be approximately 135,000 won/80kg if the government does not intervene the market additionally. 

 - The rice price during the preharvest season in the 2017 crop year is estimated to be around 135,000 won/80kg, up 4.0% from the harvest-season price (129,807 won/80kg).
 - Rice acreage in 2017 will be 2.1% lower than 2016 at 762,000ha, and rice production in the 2018 crop year will reach 3.979 million tons with an average year's yield per unit area (522kg/10a) assumed.
 

Compared with 2016, the 2017 wholesale price of Korean beef is forecast to decline by 5.0% to 17,230 won/kg, and the pig carcass price by 3.3% to 4,450 won/kg.

 - The number of Korean beef cattle in 2017 is expected to decrease to 2.67 million head, 1.0% below 2016, due to the number of head slaughtered bigger than that of calves produced. With the growing number of head slaughtered, domestic beef production in 2017 will increase by 3.5% from last year to 227,000 tons, and beef imports by 0.7% to 364,000 tons.
 - The number of pigs in 2017 is projected to be 3.1% higher than the previous year at 10.80 million head, due to the continued growth of candidate pigs from 2014. Because of a rise in the number of head slaughtered, the pig carcass price in 2017 is estimated to decrease by 3.3% from last year to 4,450 won/kg.  
 - Since the outbreak of HPAI in late 2016, the egg supply has been insufficient, with 23 million layer chickens buried. Accordingly, the 2017 egg price in producing areas will grow by 62.3% from the previous year to 1,772 won/10 extra large eggs.
 

The consumption of oranges and imported tropical fruits in 2017 is forecast to increase compared to 2016, while the consumption of domestic fruits will be stagnant. 

 - In 2017, the acreage of six major fruits is expected to decline by 0.7% from last year to 108,000ha. If the crop situation is the normal year's level, fruit production in 2017 will be similar to last year.
 - The cultivation area of apples and peaches is estimated to grow by 1% and 5% respectively. On the other hand, that of pears, grapes, tangerines, and sweet persimmons will decrease by 2%, 11%, 1%, and 2% respectively. This year, the production of apples, grapes, and sweet persimmons is forecast to increase, while that of pears and tangerines will fall, and peach production will be similar to the level of 2016.
 - Fruit imports in 2017 are estimated to be 2% higher than last year at 835,000 tons. The imports of oranges and grapes will grow by 5% and 4% respectively, and those of tropical fruits are projected to rise by 1%.
 

In the first half of 2017, the prices of leaf and root vegetables will be higher than last year, while those of condiment vegetables will be lower.

 - The leaf and root vegetable prices in the first half of 2017 are forecast to be higher compared to 2016, because of a decrease in production of winter crops following poor crop situations caused by deteriorating weather conditions. The prices will begin to be on the decline after May when full-scale shipment starts due to the growing intent to cultivate spring crops in greenhouses. 
 - In 2017, the acreage of leaf and root vegetables is expected to reach 62,317ha, up 9% from the previous year. The acreage of Chinese cabbage and radishes will grow by about 10% from 2016, and that of cabbage and carrots will be similar to last year. The imports of major leaf and root vegetables (Chinese cabbage and carrots) in 2017 are projected to decrease by 6% from 2016 due to an increase in domestic production.
 - The acreage of dried chilies in 2017 will decline by 9% from last year, and that of onions by 10%. However, that of garlic and scallions is forecast to grow by 7% and 11% respectively from the previous year, due to the price increases in 2016. 
 - Dried chili prices in the first half of 2017 are expected to be lower than last year due to large supply; onion prices will be lower than 2016 with an increase in stocks. On the other hand, garlic prices are projected to be lower than the previous year before a harvest season of this year's garlic due to the growth of imports. Scallion prices will be higher than last year until January because of a decline in the supply in winter.